We are getting better at locating danger in the Himalayas. Knowing when it will come crashing down is another matter,’ said glacier expert, Dr Anil Kulkarni to Stratnews Global, on the Gist. In the conversation about the devastating floods in Nepal and Tibet, he observed that while the Himalayas are becoming easier to map, they remain highly vulnerable to climate change, and natural disasters.
Dr Kulkarni believes a hanging glacier at very high altitude may have collapsed onto a deglaciated valley below. Such valleys are packed with loose rock, boulders and debris, left behind by retreating glaciers. The fall may have been between one and 1.5 kilometres before hitting a deglaciated valley full of loose rock and debris — ideal material for turning a collapse into a violent downstream surge.
He says the fall could have created tremors and a minor earthquake was observed by numerous seismological stations surrounding the region.
However, the fall of the debris after this would have been so massive that it is unlikely that there was sufficient time to warn authorities in Nepal and Tibet after this, noted Kulkarni.
While this situation was unprecedented, one of the long term solutions to mitigate the risks of such events is to have a more robust communication channel between China, Nepal and India. He said, “Many times a risk generated in China may then enter into Nepal or India so it is necessary for us to have a robust mechanism to protect people.”
In Kulkarni’s vast experience and years of work, he said that although this happened in Nepal, all of the Himalayas are vulnerable to climate change, given that it is experiencing climate risks at a higher average than the globe. Researchers have mapped roughly 800-900 hanging glaciers in Uttarakhand alone and developed models to estimate which portions could fail and what communities or infrastructure could lie in their path. Overall, the mountain range contains thousands of such glaciers, highlighting the need for intensive instrumentation.
Such data collection, along with environmental assessments can reduce the risk of loss of property in the long run. He says, “Placing more assets in vulnerable valleys dramatically increases vulnerabilities and can create cascading failures once debris begins moving downstream.:
He also suggests that India consider creating a “high altitude regulation zone”, analogous to restrictions in vulnerable coastal areas, so as to protect extremely sensitive areas from development activities that may invite disasters in the future.
