Iceland: The Arctic gateway that remains closed to Europe

By Cosimo Graziani

With just over 52% of the vote, Icelanders decided not to resume negotiations on membership of the European Union.

The referendum was held on Saturday, August 29, and saw an exceptionally high turnout on the Atlantic island, exceeding 82%. The vote had implications not only domestically, but also internationally: a favorable result would have given further momentum to the process of European integration, this time not in the Western Balkans or Eastern Europe, but in the Arctic.

Major divisions within the country

The referendum was part of the electoral program of the center-left government led by Kristrún Frostadóttir. It had initially been scheduled for 2027, but certain factors, such as US President Donald Trump’s expansionist ambitions regarding Greenland, prompted the government to bring the vote forward by a year.

Iceland’s Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir holds a press conference in Reykjavik   (REUTERS)

The “Yes” camp received 47% of the votes. Had it won, the Icelandic government would have begun negotiations that many expected to be relatively short, given a number of favorable factors: the country’s participation in the single market and the Schengen Area, its alignment with many European policies, and, not least, a number of negotiating chapters that had already been closed during the five-year period from 2009 to 2013, when Reykjavík was an EU candidate before subsequently withdrawing.

The referendum highlighted an important divide within the country — that between rural areas and the capital. In rural areas, voters decisively backed “No,” while voters in the capital supported “Yes.” This is not a new divide when it comes to the European Union. It was also seen in the 2016 Brexit vote. 

The issue that had the greatest influence was an old one: fishing rights. The sector employs 10% of the population and accounts for 40% of the country’s exports. Local fishermen fear that, once inside the EU, vessels from other countries could be allowed to fish in Icelandic waters, harming the sector. Not surprisingly, when Iceland was an EU candidate, this was the only negotiating chapter where talks stalled and were suspended.

European reactions

The Icelandic government has said that the result will have no effect on the work of the administration. Prime Minister Frostadóttir said that it represented a victory for democracy and that the issue of resuming negotiations would not be considered at least until the end of her term, which is due to end in 2028. At present, however, it is easy to imagine that the topic will be set aside for much longer.

Those who welcomed the result were the continent’s Eurosceptic forces. British politician Nigel Farage congratulated the Icelandic people for “maintaining their independence,” while French leader Marine Le Pen said that the referendum results were “proof that another model of Europe,” based on cooperation among sovereign countries, “is possible.”

Iceland voted ‘No’ to resuming membership negotiations with the European Union, final referendum results showed on August 30, 2026   (AFP or licensors)

Brussels reacted differently, issuing its response only yesterday — August 30 — both through European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and through statements by the spokesperson for the President of the European Council. In both cases, it emphasized that, despite the result, Iceland remains an important partner for the EU.

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The Arctic remains out of reach

The result represents a loss for Brussels. While another referendum would have been necessary for Iceland to achieve full EU membership, Saturday’s vote closed an important door for Brussels in the Arctic region.

The EU promotes environmental and social issues in the region, but an Iceland that was an EU member would have given the Union significant influence over other issues in the region as well, above all the search for rare earths and the development of logistical corridors.

The European Union thus risks missing another opportunity to put itself on an equal footing with the other powers active in the region: the United States, Russia, and China. These countries will now be able to pursue the region’s resources and the logistical routes emerging as the ice melts with even greater determination.