Economic recovery accelerates as Sept PMI rises to 53 points

By Elizabeth Adegbesan

The momentum of Nigeria’s economic recovery picked up significantly at the end of the third quarter, fueled by a sharp rebound in industrial activity and sustained resilience across key economic pillars.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, released during the weekend, showed that the composite PMI rose to 53.0 points in September 2026, up from the 52.7 points recorded in August. 

PMI is a monthly economic indicator that measures the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.

“The Composite PMI rose from 52.7 points in August to 53.0 points in September 2026, extending the expansion in overall economic activity to a fourth consecutive month.”

This crucial upturn extends the continuous expansion of overall economic activity into its fourth consecutive month, signaling strengthening confidence across the private sector. 

CBN noted that out of the 32 economic subsectors surveyed, 23 reported expansions in business activity, while only nine recorded declines.

A major catalyst for September’s growth was the industrial sector. 

The Industry PMI strengthened to 52.0 points, climbing steeply from the 50.6 points logged in August to mark a second straight month of expansion. 

According to the apex bank, 10 out of the 16 surveyed industrial subsectors posted positive growth.

Meanwhile, the services sector, though recording a slight decline, maintained its dominant role in stabilizing the broader economy. 

The Services PMI posted 53.2 points, compared to 53.3 points in August, and remained secure in expansionary territory for a third consecutive month. 

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Growth within services was highly concentrated, with nine out of 11 subsectors reporting expansion. The agricultural sector similarly demonstrated long-term durability.

Standing at 53.1 points in September, down marginally from 53.4 points in August. The sector marked its twenty-sixth consecutive month of expansion, driven by growth in four out of its five subsectors. Despite the buoyant headline growth, underlying price indices point to an emerging squeeze on corporate profitability.

CBN said: “In September 2026, the Composite PMI input price index increased by 0.8 points, while the output price index fell by 0.5 points, primarily driven by price movements in the industry sector during the month.”

This divergence highlights a growing trend where businesses are facing higher costs for raw materials and logistics but are forced to lower final selling prices to maintain consumer demand.

CBN concluded: “Overall, the September 2026 PMI points to a strengthening recovery in economic activity, buoyed by sustained expansions in the Services and Agriculture sectors and improved performance in the Industry sector.”