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3M Open odds: Just how big of a favorite is Scottie Scheffler entering TPC Twin Cities?
The PGA Tour arrives back stateside in Minnesota where the 3M Open will be played at TPC Twin Cities this week for $8.8 million in prize money.
Kurt Kitayama is the reigning champ and Scottie Scheffler is the field headliner. Young stars Jackson Koivun, Ben James and Gordon Sargent are all playing, too, coming in with strong results this summer.
For Scheffler, the world No. 1 is looking to win for the first time since January and for the second time on Tour this year. Statistically, it’s been an impeccable year for Scheffler. In the winner’s circle? Nobody on the planet would complain about a season with 10 top-5 finishes (ties included) but Scheffler may be the exception to that rule.
Let’s take a look at how big of a favorite oddsmakers make Scheffler coming off a T-4 at Royal Birkdale a few days ago.
2026 3M Open favorites (as of July 21, courtesy of DraftKings)
- Scottie Scheffler (+265)
- Kurt Kitayama (+2250)
- Maverick McNealy (+2350)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
- Tom Kim (+2900)
- Keith Mitchell (+3200)
- Jake Knapp (+3500)
- Jackson Koivun (+3600)
- Pierceson Coody (+4100)
- Jackson Suber (+4400)
- Corey Conners (+4800)
- Doug Ghim (+4900)
- Max Homa (+5100)
- Ben James (+5100)
- Sungjae Im (+5100)
3M Open winner prediction (Scottie Scheffler insurance*)
Picking Scheffler is just not fun so we’ll avert everyone’s eyes and attention away from the main board to DraftKings’ second option for favorites which is labeled “Winner Without Scottie Scheffler.” This is the asterisked Scottie Scheffler insurance above, removing the heavy-favorite from all recommended plays below — of which we have four! Why not go big following the year’s final major, especially when driving on the road with such great protection.
- Sungjae Im (+4000)
- Jordan Smith (+4200)
- Sam Stevens (+4500)
- Steven Fisk (+9400)
It’s all about living in the mid-range this week, and staying clear of any Scheffler runaway potential on Sunday. Im was fantastic early Thursday at The Open but wilted. A 2022 runner-up at this tournament, Im ranks first in approach shots under 100 yards this year in Tour and is 14th in shots gained around-the-green. There’s something to this guy: Once he gets within range, he’s as elite as anybody. Will he get us there is the question? Time will tell.
Smith is probably someone who is safer to play in the T-20 market but we kept coming back to how well he’s been striking the ball, and the results over the last two weeks (T-21 at the Scottish, T-18 at The Open) show a player who is in peak form right now. And perhaps he’s been all season with a T-15 at the WM Phoenix Open, solo third at Valspar and T-16 at RBC Heritage. All over the country — signature event, non-signature event, this guy has been cooking.
As for Stevens, don’t have to go too far back to see that he was solo second here a year ago and has been great throughout the year like Smith (seven T-25 finishes, 17-out-of-21 made cuts). He’s probably nobody’s favorite this week after a pair of missed cuts across the pond but rested is an advantage with a majority of the field playing abroad in either the U.K. or the Dominican Republic last week.
Italy’s Stefano Mazzoli posted a final round 6-under 66 to overcome a four-shot deficit at the PGA Tour’s Corales Puntacana Championship on Sunday.
Fisk is a recent performance play, a true long-shot flier where the number is too big for us to ignore. The ISCO Championship winner took a week off after his playoff victory in Louisville and has just two rounds in the 70s since his MC at Aronomink. Safe to say he’s rested and will be playing this weekend in north Minneapolis.
3M Open first-round leader
Going to offer up two straight players as this market feels somewhat reminiscent to investing into the “Winner Without” field mentioned above: Tom Kim (+4500) and Doug Ghim (+5900). Kim should be fresh after a surprising missed cut at Royal Birkdale following his return to the winner’s circle a week prior at the Scottish Open.
Nonetheless, there’s a smidge of doubt that he can keep it up for 72 holes so we’ll look to take advantage of him coming in here absolutely locked in after said MC across the pond. He doesn’t have amazing course history though (T-28 last year, T-26 in 2022) so can’t offer him in good faith to win on Sunday.
Similarly, there’s a compressed ceiling on the level of trust Ghim will take us the distance. However, this is a player who did shoot in the 60s on Thursdays for three straight months this year until a MC at the Scottish Open. Translation: He’s a great bet early. Doubly, he’s super rested having not played at The Open which is something we were eying in this field with all our wagers.
And, so we don’t totally shun Scottie from our betting card … It’s parlay time! To finish T-10 in the first round, Scottie Scheffler (+172) and Corey Conners (+600). Together that’s +1800. Why not live a little, it’s summer time!
The PGA Tour makes its return to the Twin Cities this week. Here’s a look at the field, which includes world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and defending champion Kurt Kitayama.
3M Open best bet
We’ll go with another parlay, this time to the T-30 (ties included) market and string together a trio of non-Scheffler names from the top 15 favorites listed above: Kurt Kitayama (-154), Keith Mitchell (-122) and Jackson Koivun (-112). You can play those ones solo as listed but the most fun version is together at +470. Like it? We love it.
If you want to add in a fourth, we recommend Aaron Wise (+245). He takes us all the way to +1860.
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