Pak Occupied J&K: Popular Resistance, State Violence,

These days it may not be possible for any resistance force anywhere in the world, to break away from a nation unless backed by an external power.

Sources told StratNewsGlobal that it broadly sums up the underlying Indian perception of the violence in Pak Occupied J&K  (POJK): that this violence now over two months old, will eventually settle down as the Pak Army “will crush it, they will pick up people and kill them.”

“Pojk will settle down,” the sources said, “the unrest and violence is intermittent unlike what you see in Balochistan and although casualties this time have gone beyond limits with over 100 reported, people there are not going to keep this up for long.”

The protests are not going to be sustained, there could be further curbs on organisations like the Joint Awami Action Committee, demands for electoral and other reforms will remain unfulfilled.

Demands for making POJK another province of Pakistan (the constitution currently allows only four: Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) has not made much headway given that it affects Islamabad’s claim to Kashmir.

Important to understand that the people of POJK don’t owe their allegiance to India. Case in point, parallel to the violence in POJK, there have been demonstrations before the Indian consulate in Birmingham, near London, by people with links to those in POJK.

They said Pakistan should leave POJK, but in those same groups there were people raising slogans against India, demanding that it leave Kashmir.

The thinking is that India has really nothing to gain from this situation. The government can respond to ground level developments but the ultimate focus should be clear: ending terrorism within India’s borders, and ensuring durable peace.

The Pahalgam attack of April 2025 in which 26 people were killed by Pakistani terrorists is a warning that this war is yet to be won.  India needs to work harder at securing itself and some of the initiatives taken, such as keeping the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, are part of that strategy.

In the meantime, the violence in POJK provides India an opportunity to collate information about the overall situation there. All this information and conclusions drawn will go into a dossier being prepared for circulation among like minded countries.

As for Balochistan, the sense is the resistance will continue but for the insurgents to liberate the province from Pakistan is impossible.  It’s not just about their lack of capacity, it’s also about growing outside interest in mining the province’s minerals.  Balochistan will remain Pakistan, insurgency notwithstanding.