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TotalEnergies projects three global energy pathways to 2060, warns of climate risks – EnviroNews
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TotalEnergies has outlined three possible pathways for the evolution of the global energy system through 2060, warning that current energy transition efforts remain insufficient to keep global warming below 2°C.
The scenarios, contained in the eighth edition of the company’s TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2026, examine how government climate ambitions, geopolitical developments, technological advances and investment decisions could shape the world’s energy future.
The report, published as a contribution to the public debate on the energy transition, assesses the competing demands of energy security, affordability and environmental sustainability, while highlighting the increasingly divergent energy strategies being pursued by major global economies.
According to TotalEnergies, global demand for all energy sources, including coal, oil, natural gas and electricity, continues to rise as countries seek to meet development needs.
It noted that more than half of the world’s population still lacks access to sufficient energy to improve living standards in areas such as education, healthcare and wealth creation.
However, the company observed that the growth rate of fossil fuel consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions is slowing, even as global economic growth remains above three per cent.
It described this development as evidence that the global energy system has entered a transition phase, with economies increasingly consuming less energy and emitting less carbon dioxide for every unit of wealth created.
The report identified investment trends as another indication of the changing energy landscape, noting that global investment in low-carbon energy, including electrification of end-use sectors, nearly doubled from $1.2 trillion in 2015 to $2.1 trillion in 2025.
China emerged as the dominant player in the deployment of renewable energy and electric mobility technologies, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of global solar panel additions, 70 per cent of wind turbine additions and 60 per cent of electric vehicle sales.
The country is also expanding its influence through the export of clean energy technologies to other regions.
TotalEnergies further reported that electricity’s share of global final energy demand has increased by an average of 1.3 per cent annually since 2000, while electricity generation is becoming progressively less carbon-intensive.
In 2025, it said, the entire increase in global electricity demand was met by new low-carbon energy sources.
Three scenarios for the global energy future
The Energy Outlook 2026 presents three scenarios – Trends, Momentum and Rupture – based on different assumptions about government climate policies, international cooperation and the pace of technological development.
The Trends scenario reflects the continuation of current government policies, technological progress and consumer behaviour.
Although it anticipates further deployment of established low-carbon technologies, including solar, wind, electric vehicles and heat pumps, infrastructure limitations, geopolitical tensions and high costs are expected to constrain their expansion.
Under this pathway, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries would fail to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, while China would approach the target by 2060.
Global demand for petroleum products would increase and peak during the 2030s before gradually declining, while natural gas demand would continue rising until stabilising in the 2040s.
The scenario projects global temperature increases of between 2.6°C and 2.8°C by 2100.
The more ambitious Momentum scenario assumes that OECD countries approach carbon neutrality by 2050, with China following by 2060.
It envisages faster electrification of energy demand, the near elimination of coal use in OECD countries, a significant reduction in China’s coal consumption and only marginal growth in coal use in India.
Natural gas would continue to serve as a transition fuel for electricity generation and industrial activities, while low-carbon hydrogen and sustainable fuels would support sectors that are difficult to electrify, particularly aviation and shipping.
However, the report cautions that fossil fuels would still account for half of the growth in energy demand in India and other developing regions because of inadequate investment in low-carbon alternatives.
Global warming under this scenario is projected at between 2.3°C and 2.4°C by 2100.
The third pathway, Rupture, is a more ambitious scenario designed to limit global warming to below 2°C by 2050, in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Achieving this pathway would require significantly stronger international cooperation and a much faster pace of global decarbonisation than current geopolitical conditions appear to support.
It envisages a rapid reduction in coal consumption for electricity generation, broadly stable natural gas use and substantial expansion of low-carbon electricity generation to support deeper electrification across economies.
The scenario projects global temperature increases of between 1.8°C and 1.9°C by 2100.
Geopolitical tensions reshape energy strategies
The report also highlights how geopolitical rivalries and concerns about energy sovereignty are increasingly influencing national energy policies.
It pointed to the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis and the 2022 Ukraine crisis as reminders of the vulnerabilities associated with dependence on concentrated energy supply sources.
According to TotalEnergies, these developments have reinforced the importance of developing domestically available energy resources, including renewable electricity and biofuels, while diversifying fossil fuel supplies and investing in storage and transportation infrastructure.
The company noted that the latest Middle East crisis had contributed to accelerating electric vehicle sales across Asia, Latin America and Europe since the second quarter of 2026, alongside increased biofuel blending requirements.
Nevertheless, coal remains important to electricity systems in several Asian economies, partly because of its domestic availability.
Examining regional energy trajectories, the report identified the United States, China and the European Union as major players pursuing different approaches to energy security and decarbonisation.
The United States, having achieved energy independence through shale oil and gas production, has become a major exporter of liquefied natural gas and petroleum products.
Its relatively inexpensive domestic natural gas has also facilitated the replacement of coal-fired electricity generation, contributing to lower carbon emissions.
TotalEnergies expects the country to remain heavily dependent on domestic fossil fuels, which would account for approximately 60 per cent of its primary energy consumption by 2060, compared with about 80 per cent currently.
At the same time, growing electricity demand from data centres and artificial intelligence is expected to strengthen its position as a major electricity power.
China, meanwhile, is consolidating its position as an emerging electricity-driven economy through extensive electrification and dominance across low-carbon technology supply chains.
Although the country continues to expand its installed coal-fired power capacity, renewable energy deployment, nuclear power development and the modernisation of existing coal plants are expected to reduce coal’s share of primary energy consumption from approximately 60 per cent in 2025 to 25 per cent by 2060.
The electrification of road transport is also projected to reduce oil’s contribution to China’s primary energy mix from about 20 per cent in 2025 to 10 per cent in 2060.
For the European Union, the report identifies continued electricity decarbonisation as a major priority, alongside the challenge of financing substantial investments in power grids and maintaining industrial competitiveness.
It noted that Europe faces the additional challenge of addressing public resistance to the higher costs associated with decarbonising energy consumption.
Fossil fuels are expected to account for approximately 60 per cent of the EU’s primary energy consumption in 2035, highlighting the region’s continuing need to secure fossil energy supplies while accelerating electrification, particularly in transport and heating.
Commenting on the findings, Aurélien Hamelle, President for Strategy and Sustainability at TotalEnergies, said the global energy system was navigating competing pressures arising from energy security, sovereignty and the need to accelerate the transition.
He said developments following the Strait of Hormuz crisis had reinforced the importance of government policies supporting domestic energy production, particularly renewable electricity, electrification and biofuels, alongside investments in fossil fuel supply diversification, storage and transportation infrastructure.
Hamelle observed that some developments in 2026 were reinforcing the energy transition trajectory initiated following the Paris Agreement, but were not sufficient to accelerate decarbonisation at the pace required to limit global warming to below 2°C.
He also emphasised that regional energy pathways would become increasingly differentiated, with fossil fuel-producing countries continuing to exploit their domestic resources.
According to him, China would maintain its aggressive electrification drive and leadership in low-carbon technology deployment and exports, while Europe would have to balance ambitious climate objectives with industrial competitiveness and the substantial financing requirements of energy security and the transition.
The report ultimately underscores the growing complexity of achieving a secure, affordable and sustainable global energy system, particularly as countries confront rising energy demand, geopolitical uncertainties and the escalating consequences of climate change.
