Politics
ANALYSIS | Statistics reveal bleak economic future for youth – SABC News
Ever since high school students sparked the watershed Soweto uprisings 50 years ago, the youth has been chasing an elusive dream of economic freedom and abundance of economic opportunities. With every decade this dream appears to drift far away. Thirty-two years into democracy, South African youth face socio-economic challenges such as unemployment, poverty, and unequal opportunities in education.
Often June 16 celebrations reflect a romanticised memory of Soweto uprising and the street battles of the 1980s. Yet the since the dawn of democracy there has been many unkept promises towards a better life for all in particular youth.
According to Stats South Africa (Stats SA), youth are defined as individuals aged 15–34 years, form a crucial demographic and make up nearly one-third of the population. According to the Stats SA 2024 Mid-year Population Estimates, approximately 21 million young people account for 33,1% of the country’s population.
The economic dilemma faced by the country’s youth is starkly illustrated by latest unemployment data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS Q1 2026) released by the national statistical service.
The quarterly survey indicated that 45.8% of youth (15-34 years), or 4.7 million youths are without jobs. While only 5.6 million are employed out of 21 million working age youth population. In the same period, 2 million out of 3.9 million discouraged job-seekers, were young people aged 15-34 years.
Despite government spending over 61% of national budget on social wage, which includes education, the investment is not yielding desired results. In 2017, then President Jacob Zuma announced a fee-free tertiary education for qualifying students. This has been one of useful interventions yet graduate unemployment has increased. In the past 10 years graduate unemployment has doubled from 5.6% (Q1: 2016) to 12.2% (Q1:2026). Those with matric and less than matric remain vulnerable with unemployment rates of 35.7% and 37.6%, respectively in QLFS Q1 2026.
The number of unemployed youth in South Africa increased from 3,7 million in Q1:2016 to 4,7 million in Q1:2026. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 63,3% in Q1:2016 to 75,5% in Q1:2026. In the past ten years, the number of unemployed persons in South Africa increased by 2.4 million from 5.7 million (Q1:2016) to 8.1 million (Q1:2026). In the past ten years, the number of employed people slightly increased by only 1.2 million from 15.6 million (Q1:2016) to 16.8 million (Q1:2026).
Young people are not only more likely to be unemployed but are also far less likely to be in employment relative to their share of the working-age population. Their absorption and participation rates continue to be lower than those of adults, while their unemployment rate remains significantly higher, creating a persistent disadvantage for the youth. The absorption rate, which measures the share of the working-age population that is employed, highlights an unmet need for youth inclusion in the labour market. Among those aged 15-24, the absorption rate was 10,1%, the lowest of any age group in Q1:2026. While the participation rate for youth aged 25-34 was high at 72,0%, with an absorption rate of 42,8% pointing to a gap of 29,2 percentage points between those actively participating in the labour market and those who were employed.
The youth (15–34 years) remain vulnerable in the labour market. While the national unemployment rate stood at 32,7% in Q1:2026, the burden was disproportionately carried by the youth, with those aged 15-24 facing the highest unemployment rate at 60,9%, followed by those aged 25-34 at 40,6%.
Source: Stats SA
The crisis extends to education
The challenges facing young people extend beyond those actively searching for work and include a growing share of those who are not in employment, education or training (NEET). While unemployment rates capture those who are looking and available for work, the NEET rate provides a broader measure of youth who are disengaged from both the labour market and the education system.
In Q1:2026, approximately 3,9 million out of 10,3 million (or 37,6%) young people aged 15-24 were NEET. The year-on-year comparison shows a rising vulnerability among young people. The NEET rate for both the 15-24 years and the broader 15-34 years age groups increased by 0,5 of a percentage point between Q1:2025 and Q1:2026, reaching 37,6 % and 45,6% in Q1:2026, respectively. More than four in ten young people aged 15-34 were not in employment, education or training in Q1:2026.
In addition to this, the latest General Household Survey 2025, released in May 2026, has revealed that:
- The total number of students enrolled at higher education institutions increased by 59,1%between 2002 and 2025, growing to 976 147.
- Black African students comprised almost three-quarters (73,9%) of all students in 2025 (up from 60,2% in 2002). White students comprised 13,7% of all students in 2025, down from 27,5% a few decades earlier.
- Even though most students are black African, the education participation rate of this population group remained proportionally low in comparison with the Indian/Asian and white population groups.
Source: GHS 2025
Young, Female, and Locked Out of the Economy
The youth labour market not only reflects age-based disparities but also entrenched gender inequalities.
- Women continue to face greater barriers to employment, particularly among the youth. In Q1:2026, 39,2% of young females aged 15-24 years were NEET(Not in Employment, Education or Training) rate.
- This is a 1,7 percentage points increase compared to Q1: 2025. Over the same period, the NEET rate for young men fell by 0,7 of a percentage point from 36,7% in Q1:2025 to 36,0% in Q1:2026.
- The female NEET rate has remained consistently above the male rate for years with the gap reaching 3,2 percentage points in Q1:2026. While young men are edging toward the labour market, young women are moving further away from it.
Source: QLFS
Another report released in February 2025 by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) titled Marginalised Groups Series VII: The Social Profile of the Youth, 2014–2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the experiences of young people in South Africa.
The report revealed that:
- Despite comprising a large share of the labour force, South African youth continue to grapple with high unemployment, largely due to a lack of relevant skills.
- While the National Development Plan has introduced policy interventions to address youth employment, joblessness has persisted and even worsened over the past decade.
- Between 2014 and 2024, the number of people working or looking for work – known as labour force participation – fluctuated for both youth and adults. However, adults were consistently more likely to be employed than younger workers.
- Youth unemployment – the percentage of young people actively looking for work but unable to find it – climbed from 36,8% in 2014 to 45,5% in 2024.
The report also highlighted that the percentage of youth living in households without an employed adult increased and thus rural households with youth relied mostly on grants as their primary source of income.
Though government has made substantial progress in broadening opportunities for young people in basic and higher education, millions of young people remain unemployed.
In September 2023, Deputy President Paul Mashatile warned that the country needs to do more “to prevent the ticking time bomb of poverty, inequality, and joblessness from going off”. Mashatile issued this warning during his keynote address at the summit of the National Economic Development and Labour Council. In July 2023, a United Nations report on unemployment in South Africa was delivered to Mashatile, describing youth unemployment as a “ticking time bomb”.
Successive presidents have struggled with what needs to be done to avert this unemployment-ticking time bomb. Youth employment programmes like EPWP Youth Employment Programme 2026, Youth Employment Service (YES), and Presidential Employment Stimulus (PES) have created millions of over 3 million work and livelihood support opportunities, however these programmes have fallen short of long term solution and they are unsustainable. The National Development Plan (NDP) had initially targeted an overall unemployment reduction to 6% by 2030, however systemic economic constraints have kept unemployment very high.
Velemseni Mthiyane is a Business and Economics Specialist Researcher at SABC News.