France vs Spain 2026 World Cup semifinal preview, team news, prediction and betting tips: Mbappé to fire France into another final

France, winners in 2018 and runners-up in 2022, are attempting to go one better than that Qatar heartbreak. 

Spain, meanwhile, claimed their only World Cup crown in 2010 and are attempting to end a run of early exits at recent tournaments, having been eliminated at the Round of 16 in both 2018 and 2022 before this resurgent 2026 campaign. 

The winner earns a shot at immortality on July 18; the loser goes home having fallen agonizingly short.

Long established near the top of international football’s food chain, France are aiming to become just the third team to reach three successive World Cup finals, following in the footsteps of traditional giants Germany and Brazil.

France have enjoyed an almost flawless run in this tournament thus far, claiming the maximum of nine points on offer in Group I before progressing through three knockout games without conceding.

A third consecutive World Cup semi-final appearance means Didier Deschamps’ side have already made history, now having reached the last four of the tournament on eight occasions, a tally only bettered by Italy (12). 

On the day Deschamps breaks the record for most World Cup matches managed (26), reaching a third final in a row in the game’s greatest tournament would put them into an even more exclusive club of just three teams to achieve the feat.

More importantly, it would present an opportunity to avenge the heartbreak of four years ago, when only a penalty shootout defeat to Argentina in Qatar stopped them from going back-to-back.

First, though, Les Bleus will have to avenge a closer loss against a Spain side that have won seven of their last ten meetings, beating them 2-1 in the semis on their way to winning the Euros 2024 and then 5-4 in last year’s UEFA Nations League semifinals.

While France have been the standout side of the 2026 World Cup, scoring 13 goals and conceding just one, Spain, under Luis de la Fuente, have been equally composed if slightly more conservative in output. 

Having earlier dismissed Portugal 1-0 and Austria 3-1, they came through a testing quarter-final 2-1 against Belgium, where Mikel Merino became the first man in World Cup history to score the winner in two knockout ties as a substitute.

Prior to this summer, La Roja hadn’t won a knockout game at a World Cup since their 2010 triumph in South Africa.

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Following on from 2010, this marks only Spain’s second appearance in the last four of a World Cup, with the positive omen here that they have progressed in six of their last seven semi-finals at major tournaments overall.

However, France have also progressed from all of their last four World Cup semi-finals, winning the last three without conceding a goal, so it remains to be seen whose lucky streak will hold out stronger.

France and Spain have met 38 times in total, and recent history is heavily relevant. 

Spain beat France 5-4 in the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal in Stuttgart, a result that demonstrated just how open and free-scoring this fixture can be at its most expansive. 

Before that, Spain won 2-1 at Euro 2024 to eliminate France at the semi-final stage. 

The most recent competitive meeting before that was a France victory in the 2021 UEFA Nations League final, also 2-1 to France, at the same stage of that competition.

However, Les Bleus beat Spain in their only prior meeting at FIFA’s top tournament, fighting back from behind to win 3-1 some 20 years ago.

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France deservedly have the favourites tag for this semi-final, and it’s difficult to bet against them at this point. Les Bleus are on a seven-game winning run, having lost just one of their last 17 internationals.

Spain have also delivered positive results, going on a five-game winning run after their goalless draw with Cabo Verde in their opening game. 

Their last defeat came in the Nations League final, but that was lost on penalties. The previous five head-to-heads also offer encouragement, with Spain winning three.

However, France appear to be in better form at the moment. Les Bleus have won two of the last five meetings, so this semi-final is unlikely to be straightforward. 

Considering how both teams are playing currently, we’re leaning towards France securing their third consecutive World Cup final ticket.

Both teams have been defensively solid at this tournament, but they’ve been equally effective in the final third. 

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France are on a run of three clean sheets in a row, and they’ve conceded just two goals. They’ve been clinical in the opposition box, scoring 16 goals in total, one behind Argentina’s 17.

Spain can also be praised for their resilience at the back, as they hadn’t conceded a World Cup goal before their quarter-final with Belgium. 

However, De La Fuente’s charges have scored 11 goals in six games, averaging 1.83 goals per game. 

As a result, both teams will be confident of breaking through each other’s defence.

Only Belgium (112) registered more attempts at goal than France and Spain, who each managed 110 attempts. With those numbers in play, we are likely to see an attacking display on Tuesday. 

Additionally, each of the last three head-to-heads produced goals at both ends of the pitch, suggesting the same is expected in Texas.

While the hunt for the World Cup winner is starting to build up, the race for the Golden Boot is proving just as intriguing. 

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé have once again grabbed the spotlight at the global showpiece. Both players have already recorded eight goals in total, but Mbappé leads the charts thanks to his three assists.

Interestingly, both players missed from the penalty spot in their respective quarter-finals, but they also redeemed themselves by scoring from open play. 

Mbappé has been menacing from the start, and he appears set to lead his nation to the World Cup final, scoring eight goals in the last six matches at an average of 1.3 goals per game.

If he produces another standout performance against Spain, the two-time world champions will have every chance of overcoming their semi-final challenge.

Manu Kone was withdrawn due to a knee issue in the second half of France’s quarter-final against Morocco, but that was thought to be a precautionary measure.

Hence, the Roma midfielder will continue to vie with Aurelien Tchouameni for selection should the latter complete his comeback from a thigh injury. 

Mbappé was also taken off, but he is expected to recover from a minor ankle sprain in time to start on Tuesday. 

On eight goals already, he will link up with Ballon D’Or holder Dembele again. The pair have created 19 chances for one another so far this summer.

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It remains to be seen whether Doué or Barcola joins them and Olise in the French final third, and Spain’s attack is not set in stone either.

Mikel Oyarzabal has scored four at this World Cup and should lead a fluid front line, but Ferran Torres and the fit-again pair Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino are all pushing for promotion from the bench.

Meanwhile, midfielders Merino and Pedri also have strong claims to start, leaving Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo looking over their shoulders.

Yamal has yet to replicate his stunning Euro 2024 form, but the teen winger is a fixture on La Roja’s right flank, linking up with Pedro Porro, who seems to have won his selection duel with Marcos Llorente.

Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Doue; Mbappe

Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal

Penalty shootouts aside, Spain are unbeaten in 36 games, but France are the more likely winners here, backed by a flawless five-match run at this tournament and the tournament’s leading scorer in Kylian Mbappé.

Mbappé has arguably staked his claim for a first-ever Ballon d’Or this summer, with consistent, game-changing performances driving his country to this point, and with so much quality behind him, it’s hard to see how anyone stops them. 

European champions Spain are obviously an excellent side, and have actually won three of their last four matches against France, including a 5-4 thriller in June 2025.

However, this French team looks unstoppable, and their frightening goal threat is impossible to overlook.

So while it should be an excellent contest between two of the world’s strongest sides, it’s France that we’re backing to progress to the final, handing Spain their first defeat inside 90 minutes since March 2024.

Correct score prediction: France 2-1 Spain