FSU study finds new hurricane graphic helps people identify watch areas, doesn’t change risk perception

Hurricane warnings are only effective if people understand them.

A new study by Florida State University faculty in the School of Communication in the College of Communication and Information and the Department of Geography examined an experimental forecast graphic developed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) that adds inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings to the traditional track-forecast cone, which historically emphasized coastal impacts.

The FSU study found that the new graphic helps nonexperts identify which inland areas are under a hurricane or tropical storm watch. But the updated format, developed by NHC in 2024, didn’t change respondents’ perceptions of risk or their intentions to take protective action. It also didn’t improve their ability to identify regions under warnings. The research was published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.

“The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve how hurricane information is communicated,” said Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, the study’s lead author. “We had a simple question. Do those changes actually help people understand what the graphic is telling them about the risk they face?”

Analyzing public understanding

The researchers surveyed participants in Florida and Georgia using both a traditional hurricane cone graphic and the updated experimental version. Respondents who viewed the inland-enhanced graphic were better able to identify areas under tropical storm or hurricane watches, but that improvement did not translate into higher perceptions of risk or plans to avoid storm danger. One challenge is that people often misunderstand what the familiar “cone of uncertainty” actually represents.

“For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm,” Ray said. “Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake.”

Turning data into action

The NHC introduced the updated graphic in 2024 to better communicate inland hazards such as flooding, tornadoes and damaging winds. The revised version adds inland hurricane and tropical storm information to the familiar forecast cone to show that serious hurricane impacts often extend well beyond the coastline.

The researchers emphasized that the findings are not a criticism of NHC’s forecasting, which they describe as highly accurate. Instead, the study focuses on the communication challenge of translating complex scientific information into messages the public can quickly understand and use.

“Our question wasn’t whether the science is good,” said co-author Patrick Merle, professor and director of the School of Communication. “The science is excellent. The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren’t meteorologists understand the risk they’re facing.

If people find information credible but still don’t understand it well enough to take protective action, then communication has fallen short. The goal is to empower people with information they can use to stay safe.”

The researchers said people should not rely on the graphic alone but also seek out local forecasts and information about expected impacts.

“Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story,” Ray said. “Don’t rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next.”

The research was supported by an internal Florida State University SEED grant and informed by conversations with NHC, which provided the experimental forecast graphics used in the study. Department of Geography Assistant Professor Bradford Johnson was a co-author of the research. The project is part of a broader line of research on crisis and risk communication being conducted through the College of Communication and Information’s Crisis and Communication Collaborative (C3), co-directed by Ray and Merle.

Visit the School of Communication website for more information about research conducted at the College of Communication and Information.