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IEA forecasts 4,800GW renewable energy expansion by 2031 as energy security concerns intensify – EnviroNews
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Global renewable electricity capacity is projected to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, representing nearly 60 per cent more capacity than was added in the previous six-year period, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The agency said growing concerns about energy security, fuel import dependence and volatile prices were accelerating renewable energy deployment across emerging and developing economies, particularly in Africa, Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East.
In its latest annual report, Renewables 2026, the IEA projected that emerging and developing economies outside China would add as much renewable power capacity as advanced economies for the first time during the forecast period.
The report noted that renewable energy was already expanding at a record pace before the current global energy crisis, but disruptions to international energy markets following the outbreak of the Iran war in late February had further strengthened governments’ interest in domestic energy sources.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to dominate global renewable capacity expansion, accounting for more than three-quarters of additions by 2031, followed by onshore wind.
China is projected to remain the largest contributor to global renewable energy growth, although its share of new capacity additions is expected to decline from more than 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent over the forecast period, partly due to changes in its renewable energy policies.
India is emerging as the world’s second-largest renewable energy growth market, with its total renewable capacity expected to more than double by 2031.
Growth is also accelerating across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the IEA, renewable capacity additions across these regions between 2026 and 2031 are expected to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.
The IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said energy security had increasingly become the major driver of renewable energy expansion, replacing environmental concerns as the primary policy motivation in many countries.
He explained that falling renewable energy costs had made the technologies increasingly competitive, while governments were seeking to reduce their exposure to imported fuels and international price fluctuations.
Birol said renewable energy deployment was spreading beyond traditional major markets, making it an increasingly important pillar of global electricity systems.
He noted that renewables currently account for about one-third of global electricity generation and were expected to approach half of total generation within the next five years.
The report also highlighted the growing contribution of households and small businesses to renewable energy expansion through rooftop solar installations.
It said high fuel prices and unreliable electricity supplies were encouraging consumers in several countries to adopt affordable solar PV systems that could be installed relatively quickly.
These small-scale installations have already helped improve electricity services for approximately 70 million households worldwide, the report found.
On transportation, the IEA projected that renewable energy consumption would increase by more than 60 per cent by 2031, meeting about six per cent of global transport energy demand.
Renewable electricity used by electric vehicles is expected to account for approximately 45 per cent of the projected increase, while biofuels will make the second-largest contribution.
The agency said several countries, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, had increased biofuel blending mandates in response to high fuel prices and supply challenges.
Consequently, its forecast for biofuel consumption has been revised upwards by 40 per cent compared with last year’s report.
The report also emphasised the need to diversify renewable energy supply chains as global deployment accelerates.
It identified India as an increasingly important alternative manufacturing centre, projecting that the country’s share of global solar PV module production would almost double to 17 per cent over the next five years.
However, the IEA warned that rapid expansion of solar and wind energy must be matched by investments in electricity grids, battery storage and other technologies capable of improving power system flexibility.
It disclosed that advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects awaiting grid connections worldwide had increased by 60 per cent over the past year to approximately 3,000 GW.
The figure represents four times the combined wind and solar PV capacity connected to electricity networks globally last year.
The agency said delays in grid connections could undermine efforts to translate growing renewable energy investments into reliable electricity supplies.
It therefore urged countries to accelerate electricity network investments and introduce regulatory reforms to speed up the connection of new renewable energy projects.
Battery storage deployment was also identified as an important solution for improving electricity system flexibility, particularly as variable solar and wind generation increases.
The report further highlighted the potential of digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, to help manage electricity demand by shifting consumption towards periods when renewable energy supply is abundant.
According to the IEA, combining stronger grid infrastructure, battery storage, flexible electricity demand and digital technologies will be essential to ensuring that renewable energy expansion delivers more secure, affordable and reliable electricity supplies.
The agency maintained that the changing global energy landscape was creating new opportunities for countries to strengthen energy independence while accelerating the transition towards cleaner and more sustainable energy systems.