India-China ties tentative, without trust: Jayadeva Ranade

India-China ties remain tentative and bereft of trust, says China specialist and former intelligence officer Jayadeva Ranade. Disengagement along a few friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) had raised hopes of a thaw of sorts in the strained relationship but that hasn’t happened.

“Disengagement has happened only at a few places. De-escalation has not happened. De-induction hasn’t happened. There are still 60,000 to 70,000 troops on either side. There should be jitters on both sides as to what can happen,” Ranade told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.

Ahead of the SCO and BRICS summits, Ranade says China has more to give and can afford to be more generous.

China’s Economic Pressure

Ranade mentioned areas, such as fertilisers, rare earths and tunnel-boring machines, where China had indicated it would cooperate with India. But that hasn’t happened.

He also questioned China’s complaints about curbs on Chinese businesses in India. Chinese companies are being allowed into India but concerns remain over sectors in which they seek to operate, he said.

On the other hand, Indian businessmen seeking Chinese technology and products are having trouble in getting visas. Chinese strategists reflect a desire to prevent India from becoming a technological competitor, says Ranade.

Border Remains Prickly

The situation along the LAC continues to be a prickly issue in India-China ties. What hasn’t helped matters is China’s continuing military infrastructure development in Tibet. Add to that, the deployment of Chinese J-20 fighter aircraft.

India Must Stay Firm

Ranade argued that India should not rush into diplomatic engagements simply because they have been scheduled. New Delhi, he said, must remain firm on the border while opening economic sectors where cooperation serves Indian interests. In strategic sectors, the Indian government should prevail upon the domestic industry to scale up production to shun dependence on China, according to him.

Strategic Autonomy

Ranade wants India to pursue its national interest while preserving its strategic autonomy, amid pressure from both China and the U.S. “So far, we have managed. But I wonder whether in course of time we might have to tilt a little more in one direction.”

Amid the border dispute with China, Ranade struck a note of caution. “We have a neighbour that has clearly indicated that it wants its so-called territories back. So, we will have to be very, very cautious.”