India Hosts Myanmar Junta Chief Despite Civil War Concerns

He may control only 21% of the country (says the BBC) and has presided over an election widely seen as rigged, but expect India to roll out the red carpet when Myanmar’s President U Min Aung Hlaing lands in Bodh Gaya on Saturday.

“This is Myanmar President’s first visit to India in his official capacity,” MEA Spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said. “Myanmar is our neighbour and the visit is expected to further strengthen bilateral relations.”

India has little choice. It has watched helplessly as Gen Hlaing threw out the democratically elected civilian government in 2021 and plunged the country into civil war.

That in turn has driven an uptick in insurgency-related activities including arms smuggling and drugs trafficking along the borders of Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.

It has affected key Indian infrastructure projects, including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, both central to Delhi’s Act East policy and efforts to improve connectivity with Southeast Asia.

Worse still, areas in the conflict zone are rich in rare earth elements that are of strategic importance in key manufacturing sectors. Kachin state, for instance, is rich in rare earths and is next door to China.  It is seen as one of the world’s most important heavy rare earth zones.

Additional strategic mineral deposits are located in Shan State, Sagaing Region, Kayah State and the Mogok geological belt, which is also known for lithium and other critical resources.

Rare earth elements such as dysprosium, terbium and neodymium are essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, defence and aerospace systems, permanent magnets and defence manufacturing.

So when talks with Gen Hlaing open in Delhl, Prime Minister Modi is expected to focus on border security and the issue of accessing rare earths.  Gen Hlaing can be expected to respond positively but it’s not clear if he can deliver given that much of the country is outside his control.

India is well aware of that but sees the need to maintain engagement with the military junta and ensure some balance vis-a-vis China.

The National Unity Government (NUG), comprising members of the former civilian government, has urged India not to give any political legitimacy to Min Aung Hlaing.  But there are larger interests to defend and secure.