There’s a churn underway in the Horn of Africa, a turbulent region for many decades that is now seeing the entry of new players with uncertain long term consequences.
Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland, which has been independent since 1991 after Somaia collapsed into civil war, and reports about the US moving towards some kind of official recognition, has renewed concerns about stability.
There seems little doubt that Israeli recognition and reports that the US may do the same or similar, are triggered by the same set of factors: the need for these countries to keep an eye on the Houthis sitting across the Bab el Mandeb in Yemen.
“It’s a strategic choice,” Prof Peter Kagwanja, an academic and specialist on East Africa based in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya told The Gist on SNG. “It is to ensure that they can use the port of Berbera on the Red Sea to counter the Houthis and any other threat that may come from the Red Sea.”
He pointed out that Djibouti next door to Somaliland already hosts the forces of no less than five countries including the US, China and France. Not only is it crowded, it’s also expensive to operate from. Therefore the preference for Berbera next door.
It suits Somaliland which, after years of being diplomatically ignored and ostracised, is being courted by powerful countries that could give it legal status.
“India is shaping its policy in the Horn of Africa, I’ve not seen much interest in Somalia but they are interested in the Red Sea because its the main route for Indian products, Indian services to Europe and North America by sea.”
India would also be interested in the maneuvers of countries such as Turkey in Somalia, where it is building a rocket testing facility on the coast. That makes it an Indian Ocean power or a budding power and given its ties with Pakistan, India would see the need to factor those elements in as it shapes its Horn of Africa policy.
