Makkah Pact: Military Alliance Or Mirage?

The Makkah pact, involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, has raised a lot of questions among West Asia watchers. Is it a serious military alliance? Who is the common enemy? Does India need to worry?

Analyst and author MJ Akbar sees it as a temporary arrangement of convenience, without any strategic intent. Any thought about a desert throws up two images—an oasis and a mirage, he says. “Is this pact an oasis of security or is it a mirage created for crisis management at a time when American power in the region is ebbing?”

The U.S. has taken a strong hit from Iran and is re-evaluating the cost and value of its presence in West Asia, according to Akbar. Maybe, that has made the Saudis look for extra security arrangements.

But the Makkah pact, Akbar argues, really doesn’t fit in. “A military pact can only be defined by clarity over the threat, clarity over the enemy. Who is the common enemy?”

Pakistan’s Multiple Fronts

Akbar believes Pakistan could try to use the pact as leverage against India. Pakistani officials are already suggesting that Saudi missiles or Turkish drones could support Islamabad in a future conflict.

But he warns that Pakistan is becoming overstretched. Its military has had to deploy forces along its western borders because of unrest in Balochistan, instability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and deteriorating relations with Afghanistan.

“The Pakistani military-civilian establishment is not only thin-skinned but also has low IQ. Any military strategist will know that opening up too many fronts is a cardinal sin,” says Akbar.

Should India Worry?

India should not overreact to the pact, feels Akbar. India, he argues, has a clearly defined defensive military posture and does not seek territorial expansion. “India’s most important front is the Chinese front. India’s most dangerous front is the Pakistan front,” he says.

He also points to the growing India-UAE relationship as an important factor. While Saudi Arabia has deepened its defence ties with Pakistan, the UAE has simultaneously strengthened its relationship with India.

For Akbar, this underlines the limited nature of the Makkah pact. “It is not a 360-degree pact but only for a limited mercenary purpose.”