NESG projects inflation to average 15.5% in H2’26

By Peter Egwuatu

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected Nigeria’s inflation to remain elevated during the remainder of 2026, averaging 15.5 percent in the second half 2026, H2’26, and for the entire year.

This projection is premised on persistent challenges including widespread insecurity in major farming communities, climate-related disruptions particularly flooding and high transportation costs arising from logistics challenges.

In its outlook for 2026, the NESG added that election-related spending, seasonal demand associated with the festive period, and relatively high energy costs could generate temporary cost-push inflationary pressures during H2-2026.

“Howevaer, these pressures could be partly offset by continued exchange rate stability, the lagged effects of tight monetary policy, and favourable base effects” it noted.

While reviewing the Nigeria’s economy in the first half 2026, H1’26, the NESG in its report titled “ Turning Potential into Progress,’ stated that the economy is expected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026, citing improved performance in the oil, manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors.

The report stated: “Economic growth is expected to strengthen to 4.5 percent in the second half of 2026, bringing full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to approximately 4.2 percent’’.

NESG said the oil sector is expected to sustain its growth, supported by improved domestic crude oil production, reflecting better security conditions and the gradual implementation of upstream reforms.

The group said increased domestic refining activity would also strengthen industrial output, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products and improve Nigeria’s external position.

“Moreover, manufacturing activity is expected to sustain growth momentum as lower inflation, continued exchange rate stability, and improved foreign exchange liquidity ease production constraints and strengthen business confidence,” the NESG said.