Pakistan Threatens India And Is Also A Variable In Israel

Recent nuclear-related developments in Pakistan and the pending US-Saudi nuclear deal are the focus of this edition of The Gist. Two guests featured, Brig Arun Sahgal (Retd), Director of the Forum for Security Initiatives in Delhi, and from Tel Aviv, Israel, Shay Gal, former vice-president external relations of Israel Aerospace Industries.

Pakistan has brought all its nuclear weapons distributed between the army, navy and air force, under one umbrella called the National Strategic Command. It is headed by a four-star general who reports directly to the Army Chief Gen Asim Munir.

The move flows from what Pakistan sees as India enlarging the space for conventional conflict during Operation Sindoor, which even saw the Nur Khan strategic facility targeted by missiles.

“So a message is being sent to India that hey guys, the nuclear trigger is not far away and the nuclear trigger is no longer with the passive political establishment, but it is with the military who will play the game by their own defined rules.”

Sahgal describes this as a “dangerous development”, and Shay Gal concurs although he points out that “Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains centered on India and Israel is not the principal target of its deterrence, but Pakistan is a nuclear variable in Israel.”

He referred to Pakistan’s record of proliferation, tech transfers (to Iran, North Korea) and the extension of Pakistani deterrence to other states.

“The last risk is increasingly relevant,” Gal warned, “because Pakistan is also a defence partner of Saudi Arabia. Their mutual defense agreement does not explicitly provide Riyadh with a nuclear umbrella, but strategic ambiguity is part of its value.”

He argued that it allows Saudia Saudi Arabia to imply that Pakistani deterrence may stand behind it without either government formally saying no, that matters to Israel because nuclear power can become political leverage even when no weapon is for sale and no formal guarantee is issued.

Tune in for more in this conversation with Brig Arun Sahgal of the Forum for Security Initiatives and Shay Gal, former vice-president external relations at Israel Aerospace Industries.