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September 2026 second-warmest on record as global temperatures hit 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels – EnviroNews
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Global temperatures in September 2026 reached 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels, making the month the second-warmest September ever recorded and marking the second consecutive month in which temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), disclosed this in its latest monthly climate assessment, warning that the current run of months above 1.5°C could persist into 2027 amid strengthening El Niño conditions.
The report also revealed that average sea surface temperatures across the world’s extra-polar oceans reached their highest September level on record, while Antarctic sea ice recorded its third-lowest winter maximum in the satellite record.
According to the assessment, the global average surface air temperature in September was 16.27°C, representing 0.82°C above the 1991–2020 average.
Although September 2026 was 0.11°C cooler than September 2023, it remained the second-warmest September in the ERA5 temperature dataset.
The month was also 1.63°C warmer than the estimated pre-industrial average for 1850–1900, marking the first time since November 2025 that two consecutive months had exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
The development comes amid growing concerns over the pace of global warming and the implications of prolonged temperature increases for ecosystems, communities and economies worldwide.
Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said September was the second-warmest on record globally, with exceptionally high temperatures returning to parts of Europe following an extreme summer.
“We are in a new run of months above 1.5°C, and with a strong El Niño still intensifying it is likely to last into 2027,” Buontempo said.
He cautioned that exceeding the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature limit was becoming increasingly likely, adding that the extent and duration of any overshoot would depend on decisions made to address climate change.
“Crossing the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit is only a matter of time. How far we overshoot, and for how long, is still up to us,” he said.
Buontempo noted that Copernicus provides free and open access to climate data to support informed decisions.
El Niño Drives Ocean Temperatures to New Heights
The report identified strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific as a major development in the global climate system, with the potential to sustain elevated temperatures in the coming months.
The average sea surface temperature across extra-polar oceans between 60°S and 60°N reached 21.05°C in September, surpassing the previous September record of 20.92°C set in 2023.
Temperatures remained exceptionally high across much of the tropical Pacific as El Niño conditions intensified.
In the Niño 3.4 region, a key area used to monitor the climate phenomenon, the monthly average sea surface temperature reached an unprecedented 29.70°C.
The figure exceeded peak values recorded during previous very strong El Niño events in 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, underscoring the exceptional ocean warmth observed in September.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It influences weather patterns across the world and can contribute to higher global temperatures.
The report indicated that the current event was expected to intensify further in the coming months, although its eventual strength and duration would depend on how conditions developed.
Around Europe, sea surface temperatures also reached September records along the Atlantic coast and in the western Mediterranean, contributing to the unusual warmth experienced over adjacent land areas.
Europe Records Third-Warmest September Amid Persistent Drought
Europe experienced another exceptionally warm month in September, extending the unusual heat and dry conditions that characterised much of the summer.
The average temperature over European land reached 16.26°C, which was 1.54°C above the 1991–2020 average, making September the continent’s third-warmest on record.
Western Europe recorded its joint-warmest September, with temperatures 2.51°C above average, matching the previous record set in September 2023.
The unusually warm conditions were most pronounced across western Europe and neighbouring seas, following the region’s warmest summer on record.
Alongside the heat, widespread dry conditions persisted across much of western and central Europe and parts of eastern Europe.
The dryness intensified or expanded in several areas compared with August, particularly across the Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, the western Balkans and Greece.
The combination of elevated temperatures and prolonged rainfall deficits further aggravated water-related pressures across affected regions.
Record-Low River Flows Disrupt Water Supply, Agriculture
The prolonged dry conditions were reflected in exceptionally low river flows across parts of Europe, with significant implications for transportation, water availability and agricultural production.
According to Copernicus, parts of the Rhine, Danube, Vistula and Garonne-Dordogne river systems recorded their lowest September flows in the available records.
The reduced river flows caused disruptions to navigation, water supply and agriculture in several countries, highlighting the economic and environmental consequences of persistent drought.
Although rainfall towards the end of September provided some local relief, it also caused flooding in parts of France and Spain.
In contrast to the widespread dryness elsewhere, wetter-than-average conditions prevailed across parts of northern and northeastern Europe and Türkiye.
Beyond Europe, drier-than-average conditions affected several regions, including parts of North America, the Maghreb, the Horn of Africa, Siberia, Central Asia, Pakistan, China, South America and southeastern Australia.
Wetter-than-average conditions were recorded in other areas, including parts of the United States and Canada, eastern China, Japan, Chile, southern Argentina, southeastern Brazil, southernmost Africa and western Australia.
In some of these regions, heavy precipitation triggered flooding, demonstrating the contrasting hydrological extremes occurring across different parts of the world.
Antarctic Sea Ice Records Third-Lowest Winter Maximum
The Copernicus assessment also highlighted continued concerns over sea ice conditions, particularly around Antarctica.
The daily Antarctic sea ice extent reached its annual winter maximum at the third-lowest level in the satellite record. The monthly extent also ranked third-lowest for September, at approximately six per cent below average.
The only lower September values in the record were observed in 2023, when sea ice extent was nine per cent below average, and 2024, when it was eight per cent below average.
The most pronounced below-average sea ice cover occurred in the Amundsen–Ross Sea sector and the Indian Ocean sector.
In the Amundsen–Ross Sea sector, reduced sea ice cover was associated with strong southward winds, sea ice drift and much-warmer-than-average conditions.
In the Arctic, meanwhile, daily sea ice extent reached its annual summer minimum at the 14th-lowest level in the satellite record, while the monthly extent ranked 16th-lowest, at approximately 10 per cent below average.
Although Arctic sea ice remained below average, its September extent was considerably higher than the record low recorded in 2012, when it was 32 per cent below average.
Climate Data Underscore Urgency of Action
The September findings add to evidence of persistent global warming, increasing ocean temperatures and significant regional changes in rainfall, river flows and sea ice.
The consecutive months above 1.5°C do not, on their own, establish that the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature limit has been permanently breached. That limit is assessed over a longer period, rather than through individual monthly readings.
Nevertheless, the latest figures underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and strengthening climate resilience as the world faces rising temperatures and increasingly disruptive weather and water conditions.
Buontempo stressed that the scale and duration of any long-term temperature overshoot remain subject to human decisions, emphasising the importance of climate information in guiding policy and action.
With El Niño conditions strengthening and ocean temperatures reaching new September records, the coming months will be important in determining how global temperatures evolve and what further impacts may emerge across vulnerable regions.