UNICEF: El Niño threatens 347 million children worldwide

Vatican News

More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories are expected to face unusually wet or dry conditions in the coming months as the 2026-2027 El Niño develops, UNICEF has warned.

The climate phenomenon, marked by unusually warm waters in parts of the Pacific Ocean and associated changes in weather patterns across the globe, is forecast to become one of the strongest El Niño events on record. According to UNICEF, the resulting droughts and floods could threaten children’s health, nutrition, education and access to essential services.

“For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages, and disease outbreaks.”

She also warned that children could face school closures and that families could experience additional financial hardship.

Children at risk

UNICEF estimates that some 190 million children in Asia and the Pacific could experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026. Another 41 million children are expected to be affected in East and Southern Africa, and a similar number in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Some 22 million children in Europe and Central Asia could also be affected, together with about 20 million children in each of the Middle East and North Africa and West and Central Africa.

In countries including Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines, drier conditions could contribute to agricultural drought and water shortages. The resulting loss of livelihoods and access to food and water could increase displacement and worsen acute malnutrition among children.

In the Greater Horn of Africa, meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected. In Somalia in particular, heavy rainfall could cause river and flash flooding, increase the spread of water-borne diseases and interrupt children’s education.

Vulnerable communities

The effects of El Niño could be particularly severe in countries already affected by conflict, displacement and poverty.

In Afghanistan and Chad, for example, climate-related shocks could worsen hunger and malnutrition in communities where children already have limited access to essential services.

UNICEF also warns that extreme weather can expose children to risks beyond hunger and disease. When families are displaced or livelihoods are lost, children can face greater risks of family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriage.

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The agency cites the experience of Ethiopia during the 2022 drought in the Horn of Africa, when child marriage increased by an average of 119 per cent in drought-affected areas.

The warning comes as children worldwide are already bearing a significant share of the consequences of climate change. UNICEF estimates that 1.1 billion children — almost half of the world’s children — are exposed to at least three overlapping climate-related hazards, including drought, extreme heat and flooding.

Weather-related disasters displaced more than 20,000 children every day on average between 2016 and 2023. The new El Niño could further increase sudden displacement as families are forced to leave their homes because of floods, droughts and other extreme weather events.

Education disrupted

Schools and children’s education are among the services likely to be affected.

Climate-related events interrupted learning for an estimated 171 million students worldwide in 2025. More severe droughts and floods could lead to additional school closures, interrupted attendance and an increased risk of children dropping out.

For UNICEF, the months of advance warning provided by climate forecasts offer an opportunity to prepare before the worst effects are felt.

The agency is calling on governments, donors and humanitarian partners to invest in anticipatory action, strengthen climate-resilient systems and protect essential services for children. It is also urging that humanitarian organisations be able to reach communities affected by extreme weather.

UNICEF notes that every US$1 invested in disaster-risk reduction and prevention can save up to US$15 in recovery costs. Yet less than 1 per cent of humanitarian funding currently goes towards anticipatory action.

Early action

UNICEF is urging governments, donors and partners to act before needs escalate, particularly in communities where climate shocks could compound existing poverty, conflict and displacement.

The agency says early investment can help communities prepare for droughts and floods, protect children and maintain access to water, health care and education.

With forecasts providing months of warning, UNICEF is calling for action before the effects of El Niño peak, stressing that preparedness and prevention can reduce the impact of extreme weather on children and families.