‘What Exactly Can India Offer America?’

For years, closer economic ties with the United States have been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy. But according to geopolitical analyst Dr Amit Gupta, the assumptions underpinning that relationship have changed fundamentally, and New Delhi has yet to adjust.

Speaking to StratNews Global, Gupta, who’s a senior advisor to the Forum of Federations, Ottawa, argued that India’s biggest challenge in negotiating with the Trump administration is a simple one: leverage.

“What is your reciprocity?” he asked. “What exactly can India offer America?”

Gupta believes many in New Delhi continue to hope that President Donald Trump will eventually soften his approach towards India. That, he said, is wishful thinking. “There is this fond hope in New Delhi that one morning Trump will wake up and say, ‘I was so mean to India, I’m going to change all my policies.’ No, he’s not.”

Instead, he argued that Trump’s trade policy is driven by reciprocity rather than traditional free trade agreements. Every concession must deliver a tangible benefit to the United States, leaving countries with limited bargaining power struggling to secure favourable terms.

In that environment, Gupta said, India has “very few cards to play.”

He also questioned whether New Delhi has focused on the right priorities. Rather than expending political capital on high-profile defence technology transfers that are unlikely to materialise, he argued India should pursue practical areas of cooperation capable of delivering immediate economic returns.

As an example, Gupta pointed to an Obama-era proposal to establish hundreds of community colleges in India to train electricians, plumbers, welders and other skilled workers. Reviving such initiatives, he argued, would do far more to strengthen India’s economy and generate employment than chasing technologies Washington is unlikely to share.

Gupta placed India’s trade challenges within a much larger shift in the international order. He argued that China now approaches the United States as a near-equal power, making it increasingly difficult for Washington to dictate outcomes through tariffs or technology restrictions alone. Despite years of export controls and sanctions, he said, Beijing has continued to advance indigenous technologies while promoting open-source artificial intelligence as a way of expanding its global influence.

He also suggested that America’s negotiating credibility has weakened under Trump, with allies and rivals alike questioning whether agreements reached with Washington will survive political change. Looking ahead to a possible Trump-Xi Jinping summit, Gupta argued that Beijing would only engage if the United States arrived with serious proposals rather than seeking another high-profile photo opportunity.

Europe, he said, faces an equally uncomfortable reality. After decades of relying on American security guarantees, European governments are now being forced to confront demands for significantly higher defence spending while struggling to build credible military capabilities of their own. Trump’s insistence that NATO allies pay a greater share of the burden, Gupta argued, reflects a political mood in the United States that is unlikely to disappear with his presidency.

For India, however, the changing geopolitical landscape should not be viewed solely as a challenge but also as an opportunity.

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While acknowledging that the unresolved border dispute with China remains a serious security concern, Gupta argued that strategic competition need not preclude economic engagement. Japan and South Korea, he noted, continue to maintain extensive trade with China despite their own territorial disputes.

India, he said, should similarly hedge its bets by expanding economic partnerships wherever they advance national interests rather than becoming overly dependent on any single power.

Gupta was equally critical of what he described as India’s failure to exploit diplomatic opportunities. He argued New Delhi should have offered to host negotiations between the United States and Iran, and earlier between Israel and Palestine, using its relationships with all sides to position itself as a credible diplomatic bridge.

He also called on India to shape the agenda within BRICS more proactively by championing practical initiatives such as energy security and alternative financial mechanisms, rather than allowing others to define the grouping’s priorities.

Ultimately, Gupta argued that the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, more transactional and less forgiving of countries that rely on old assumptions. The India-US relationship remains important, he said, but New Delhi can no longer expect sentiment or shared democratic values alone to secure favourable outcomes.

“The world is becoming more multipolar,” Gupta said. “India needs to make itself relevant, create opportunities and negotiate from a position of strength rather than expectation.”