Education
2026 set to become second year on record to exceed 1.5°C global warming threshold – EnviroNews
– Advertisement –
The year 2026 is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperature levels, becoming the second calendar year to cross the critical warming threshold after 2024, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
A statistical prediction based on ERA5 climate data up to October indicates that 2026 is most likely to become the second-warmest year on record, with approximately a 20 per cent chance of matching or surpassing 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded.
The C3S, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), also projects that the four-year average global temperature for 2023–2026 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The latest assessment comes as October 2026 recorded the warmest October globally, with an average surface air temperature 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.
October was also the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold, highlighting the persistence of unusually high temperatures worldwide.
The report further revealed that sea surface temperatures remained exceptionally high during the month.
The average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions reached 20.95°C, the highest October value on record, surpassing the previous record established in 2023.
In the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions continued to intensify, the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached an unprecedented 3.21°C, exceeding peaks recorded during previous very strong El Niño events.
Meanwhile, Europe experienced its second-warmest October on record, although temperature patterns varied across the continent.
Eastern Europe and Scandinavia recorded the most pronounced above-average temperatures, while much of western and central Europe experienced smaller warm anomalies.
The assessment also highlighted persistent hydrological challenges across parts of Europe, with exceptionally low river flows continuing in much of central and eastern Europe.
The Rhine, Danube and Vistula rivers were among those affected, although river flows recovered in some parts of western Europe as dry conditions eased compared with September.
Conversely, heavy rainfall and flooding affected several countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Greece and Türkiye.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, said October had continued the pattern of exceptional global warmth, with record temperatures recorded both globally and across the ocean surface.
She attributed the additional warming partly to an exceptionally strong El Niño, which is adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.
“Particularly significant is that the four-year average is also expected to exceed 1.5°C, highlighting how sustained this period of global warmth has become,” Burgess said.
The latest findings underscore the growing persistence of elevated global temperatures, with the anticipated four-year average above 1.5°C pointing to an extended period of exceptional warmth.
