Politics
Osun 2026: 73 election-related violent incidents recorded
AT least 73 election-related violent incidents were recorded in Osun State between October 2025 and July 2026, with 78 per cent occurring between May and July as tensions heightened ahead of Saturday’s governorship election.
The finding is contained in the 2026 Osun Election Integrity and Security Assessment report, produced by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) on August 10, ahead of the August 15 governorship election.
The report, which analysed incidents, citizen perceptions, stakeholder interviews and other data sources, identified Osogbo as the main concentration of electoral violence, accounting for 41 per cent of recorded incidents.
The KDI’s assessment covered all 30 local government areas through a citizen survey involving 3,275 respondents, alongside 15 key informant interviews, incident monitoring, media monitoring, stakeholder validation and secondary research.
Of the 73 incidents recorded across the state’s 30 LGAs, 12 deaths were recorded in 14 LGAs during the period under review.
Incidents peak in May-June
According to the report, 54 of the incidents, representing 78 per cent, occurred between May and July when campaign activities intensified.
It identified six recurring forms of electoral violence: shootings and murders, intimidation and harassment, physical assaults, kidnappings, property destruction and verbal assaults.
The report highlighted that electoral violence in the state was increasingly being driven by political competition rather than ordinary criminality.
It said political actors and their affiliated groups accounted for most documented perpetrators, while party members and supporters constituted the largest share of victims.
Osogbo accounts for 41% of incidents
The geographical distribution of incidents shows that violence is concentrated in a relatively small number of LGAs rather than spread evenly across Osun.
Osogbo recorded 27 incidents and three deaths, followed by Ede South with six incidents and no deaths, and Olorunda with five incidents and two deaths.
It noted, however, that some other LGAs recorded fewer incidents but experienced more lethal acts of violence.
The report classified Osogbo and Ede South as the only two LGAs with critical electoral pressure.
Another 11 LGAs were classified as having high electoral pressure. They are Ede North, Egbedore, Iwo, Irewole, Ayedaade, Obokun, Oriade, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Ife North and Olorunda.
Nine LGAs were placed in the moderate category, while eight were rated low.
Politicians inciting violence
The ICIR reported how the senator representing Osun East Senatorial District, Francis Fadahunsi, directed his supporters to kill any members of the Accord Party they see within his senatorial district before the election.
Fadahunsi, who attributed the order to the alleged killing of members of his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), later denied issuing the directive following public outrage.
He was later invited by the State Police Command, questioned and released.
The ICIR reported that the incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking re-election, will face the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji; and the African Democratic Congress’ (ADC) Najeem Salam, and 11 other candidates at the poll.
INEC maps potential election flashpoints
The ICIR reports that the data comes amid heightened security concerns ahead of the Osun State governorship election, scheduled for August 15. On Monday, August 10, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said it had mapped areas considered potential flashpoints following a security risk assessment of the state.
Speaking on Arise TV’s Prime Time programme on Monday, INEC’s Director of Voter Education and Publicity, Victoria Eta-Messi, described the pre-election atmosphere in Osun as ‘tense’ and ‘volatile’, saying the commission was working with security agencies to strengthen protection for voters and election officials.
According to her, the identified vulnerable areas would receive increased security deployment, while the military would provide “back-end and outer-ring support” in areas where there were concerns about possible outbreaks of violence.
Eta-Messi said the risk mapping was being conducted under the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), which includes INEC and the Nigeria Police Force as the lead agencies, with the National Security Adviser serving as co-chair at the national level.
She said the outcome of the risk assessment was guiding the deployment of security personnel to areas requiring additional protection, with the aim of ensuring that voters could participate in the poll without fear.
Police, NSCDC deploy 25,000 personnel
Meanwhile, ahead of Saturday’s election, the security agencies have also deployed over 25,000 personnel across Osun State.
On Wednesday, August 5, the Commissioner of Police in charge of the election, Samuel Etaifo, said the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Disu, had ordered the deployment of 16 units of the Mobile Police Force and 15,000 personnel to provide security in the state during the exercise.
He said the police would arrest and prosecute anyone who violated electoral laws, regardless of their political affiliation.
Similarly, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps deployed 10,210 personnel from 10 state commands to reinforce security operations across the state’s 30 LGAs.
The personnel were drawn from Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Ogun, Lagos, Kwara, Edo, Kogi, Delta and the Federal Capital Territory. The NSCDC said it also deployed specialised units, including its intelligence squad, Special Weapons and Tactics Unit, Special Strike Force and K9 Unit.
The corps said the personnel would protect voters, electoral officials, observers, journalists and election materials, as well as support intelligence gathering, crime prevention and crowd control.
Mustapha Usman is an investigative journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting. You can easily reach him via: musman@icirnigeria.com. He tweets @UsmanMustapha_M
