Nigeria’s green transition to create up to 10.5m jobs by 2050, says report – EnviroNews

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Nigeria’s green transition could generate up to 10.5 million jobs by 2050, making it one of the largest employment opportunities in the country’s future economy, according to a new report.

But with 87% of the jobs projected to be in the informal sector where workers have few social protections and 91% of the workforce male, the jobs boom risks embedding inequality.

These are among the key findings of a new report, Unlocking Africa’s Green Transition: Opportunities Towards a Green and Inclusive Workforce, launched by financial sector development agency FSD Africa in partnership with Shell Foundation, a philanthropic foundation working to raise incomes while lowering emissions, and Shortlist, a talent advisory firm working across Africa. Shell Foundation’s participation is funded by the UK Government via the Transforming Energy Access (TEA) platform.

High job creation, but major inclusion risks

The report shows that Nigeria’s green economy is already taking shape, with 1.2 million jobs projected by 2030, rising to 10.5 million by 2050. As in the rest of Africa, Nigeria’s green transition will be driven not by large infrastructure projects, but by decentralised, service-led industries, including: clean cooking, solar home systems and electric mobility.

The high growth sectors are labour-intensive and accessible, but heavily reliant on informal delivery systems raising concerns about wages, job quality, and inclusion.

1. 73% are in nano-enterprises (single-person businesses)
2. Women account for less than 10% of the workforce and are concentrated in low-value roles
3. Young people dominate the workforce but 90% remain in informal employment
4. Many green workers lack access to social protection or career progression

“Africa’s green transition represents one of the most significant economic opportunities of our generation. However, this vision can only be realised if the green economy is designed to work for the lower-income and informal workers who power our society – and in particular for the women,” said Richard Gomes, Chief Programme Officer at Shell Foundation. “The prize here is not ‘more green jobs’. The prize is future-proofed jobs anchored in sectors that will continue to grow as the world navigates compounding climate, energy and economic disruption.”

Skills and finance are key constraints for Nigeria

The report says that realising the potential of Nigeria’s green transition requires a strategy that improves job quality within existing informal systems, closes the acute gender gap, and bridges a widening technical skills deficit. Key challenges include:

1. Limited access to market-relevant training
2. Severe underinvestment in workforce systems
3. Lack of finance for small-scale businesses driving job creation.

A new policy approach needed

The report recommends:

1. Improving job quality within informal systems, rather than forcing formalisation
2. Expanding access to finance for micro-enterprises
3. Scaling practical, short-term skills training.

“Nigeria’s green workforce will be composed of millions of independent operators—such as SHS installers and battery-swapping station managers – rather than those on corporate payrolls. Both investment and policy need to reflect that reality,” said Kevin Munjal, Director, Development Impact, at FSD Africa.

An Africa-wide opportunity

Nigeria is one of the main beneficiaries of an Africa-wide green jobs boom that is projected to see 3.8 million to 7.9 million jobs created across the continent by 2030, rising to between 65.9 and 84.5 million by 2050.

The difference between high and low job scenarios is not inevitable, it is the result of policy choices says the report. It highlights that currently Africa lacks the workforce capacity needed to deliver the transition at scale.

1. Africa’s renewable energy workforce accounts for just 2% of the global total, despite the continent holding 60% of the world’s best solar resources
2. Only 6.5% of African youth have completed formal vocational training.

Without urgent investment in training and workforce systems, projects will stall, rely on imported expertise, and fail to deliver local economic benefits, it warns. In particular it highlights the need to increase investment in training and development with less than 1% of global climate finance currently directed toward skills development. 

Key priorities for the continent include:

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1. Redirecting finance toward high-employment sectors such as clean cooking, distributed solar, waste and e-mobility 
2. Investing in green skills systems, including modular training and recognition of informal skills 
3. Embedding workforce and inclusion targets into climate finance 
4. Extending social protection to informal workers, including through mobile platforms 
5. Developing innovative financing mechanisms to unlock capital for skills development.

“The right human capital is an important input for successful climate-positive growth, so we have to be sure Africa’s workforce is ready for what’s needed. But high-quality jobs are also an exciting benefit of the green transformation. Now we have an even better idea where these millions of jobs and livelihood opportunities will come from and what we can do to make sure the market is ready,” said Paul Breloff, Co-Founder & CEO of Shortlist.

From research to action: launching the Green Jobs Innovation Hub

To help address these barriers, FSD Africa is launching the Green Jobs Innovation Hub, aimed at mobilising finance and partnerships to scale workforce solutions across the continent.

The initiative will focus on unlocking new financing models to ensure that workforce development keeps pace with investment in green infrastructure.